Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 3.698097 4.047404 4.455341 4.978995 5.653489 6.526616 7.811610
2025-01-12 3.145088 3.542848 4.040143 4.737689 5.753238 7.318220 10.372494
2025-01-19 2.852658 3.271046 3.817342 4.631585 5.932229 8.269441 14.616632
2025-01-26 2.728455 3.184394 3.806701 4.797351 6.564464 10.506921 33.487599
2025-02-02 2.662750 3.160765 3.870810 5.081932 7.540131 15.116645 NaN
2025-02-09 2.551084 3.057800 3.798986 5.118386 8.043289 20.139230 NaN
2025-02-16 2.463230 2.978511 3.750115 5.180697 8.654835 30.673297 NaN
2025-02-23 2.335969 2.831067 3.577021 4.975231 8.459575 34.433570 NaN
2025-03-02 2.267224 2.764652 3.526716 4.998904 8.952309 69.373844 NaN
2025-03-09 2.199454 2.694575 3.462897 4.982945 9.329463 1371.312452 NaN
2025-03-16 2.119404 2.601113 3.352290 4.852197 9.251235 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 2.089750 2.582248 3.364944 4.985867 10.274083 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 2.004913 2.476848 3.226382 4.776678 9.815020 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 1.924580 2.375715 3.090622 4.562890 9.284940 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 1.867814 2.308798 3.010296 4.465793 9.241815 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 1.852498 2.305144 3.038817 4.619096 10.477923 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 1.851260 2.323126 3.106625 4.880995 12.830686 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.820628 2.292519 3.083848 4.914443 13.905243 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.794726 2.268231 3.070815 4.971562 15.413101 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.742643 2.199546 2.971056 4.782969 14.333223 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.717055 2.173135 2.949381 4.804735 15.491681 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 1.688973 2.141562 2.916069 4.790063 16.328970 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 1.651074 2.092715 2.847648 4.669695 15.732179 NaN NaN